Bollworms, flooding in riverine areas and bouts of rains in several parts of the cotton belt are being held responsible for this expected shortage which may continue till the end of the season.
Therefore the official estimate of this year's (2005-06) crop has been revised downward to 12.5 million bales (170 kgs) recently on an ex-farm basis. Some private sector sources now feel that the current year's lint output may range from 11.5 million to 12.5 million bales on ex-gin basis. Some observers are of the opinion that it may be even lower.
Another set of observers feels that this is the time when seedcotton arrivals pick up and appear in larger quantities. Therefore, there is still scope for recouping the size of the crop to obtain higher output than now being assessed. These various views are creating an uncertainty regarding the real size of cotton crop which Pakistan may reap this year (2005-06).
Anyhow, as consumption of cotton in Pakistan is variously being projected anywhere from 16 to 18 million domestic size bales, lack of proper compilation of any supply and demand figures is presenting difficulty at present.
However, net shortage or deficit of cotton fibre during the current season (2005-06) is quite certain. On a preliminary basis it can be said that Pakistan may have to import about 3 million bales (480 lbs) of cotton including higher quantities of long staple cotton.
However, it may be noted here that there is a shortage of long staple cotton at various origins and some countries have even stopped selling their long staple cottons for the time being. The prices of long staple cottons have shot up.
However, during last several days some leading spinners have been buyers of cotton as quality of cotton has improved in Punjab and also in the Khairpur district in Sindh. Lint from Sukhar has started arriving and is also of good quality.
This week the prices for ginned cotton have gone up by Rs 25 to Rs 50 per maund (37.32 Kgs). In Sindh, the cotton prices were said to have ranged from Rs 2250 to Rs 2400 per maund (37.32 kgs) on Wednesday, while in the Punjab they reportedly ranged from Rs 2375 to Rs 2400 per maund.
Some recent buying was reportedly prompted by spinners who had low stocks and who wanted to tide over the period when most businesses in Pakistan will remain closed this Wednesday through Sunday.
Therefore, full time business is only likely to resume after about one week due to Eid holidays in Pakistan. In the mean time, yarn prices were also said to have slackened.
This year the growers have also been enjoying good prices for their seedcotton (kapas/phutti) since the inception of the current season despite earlier reports which had been counting on a bumper crop.
On Wednesday, seedcotton prices in Sindh reportedly ranged from Rs 1025 to Rs 1100 per 40 kgs, while in the Punjab they were said to have ranged from Rs 1075 to Rs 1100 per 40 kilogrammes.
Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) which had picked up about 1.6 million bales this season to prevent cotton prices going below the support prices fixed by the government still has about 400,000 bales in its stock.
Interest in last few sales tenders for cotton floated by the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has not attracted the merchants or exporters in any sizeable way.
Also of note is the fact that the domestic ginners are carrying about 1.8 million bales of unsold stock with them from the current season from which 1 million lint equivalent bales are in loose form (seedcotton) while nearly 800,000 are in the form of pressed bales.
Brokers said that the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has floated sale of 500,000 bales of cotton tender for which bids may be received till the 10th of November 2005.
The domestic mills have lifted about 3 million bales from the new crop and need much more cotton to process their products during this season. Their additional requirements may be at least another 13 or 14 million bales (170 kgs) as they have expanded their capacity.
However, more news on cotton and textiles in Pakistan will be available after about 8 or 10 days as business activities have closed for Eid holidays in Pakistan over an extended weekend.